If it makes Suns fans feel any better, the same number of “pundits” who chose the Diamondbacks to win the NL West Division title in 2011 is picking the Suns to capture the NBA Pacific Division championship in the abbreviated 2012 season.
The Republic‘s Suns predictions | NBA post-lockout story lines |
Suns preseason
Which is to say, none of them.
OK, duplicating what the Diamondbacks pulled off is probably asking too much of the Suns this season for at least three reasons:
1. Kobe Bryant still is wearing a Lakers uniform, and that means something — divorce lawyers and torn ligaments not withstanding.
2. Someone, possibly Clippers fan Billy Crystal, apparently has kidnapped Clippers owner Donald Sterling.
3. Um, the Suns aren’t very good.
Yes, the Lakers figure to take a step back with the upheaval of the off-season, loss of Lamar Odom and the fact that center Andrew Bynum will miss the first four games while serving a suspension for trying to decapitate J.J. Barea during the 2011 playoffs.
And the Clippers, who already had Blake Griffin and Mo Williams, acquired point guard Chris Paul and swingman Caron Butler while matching an offer sheet for center DeAndre Jordan.
Those are the kind of players Clippers fans — some of whom jumped aboard the bandwagon about one week ago — expect Sterling to give away, not steal.
Meanwhile, the Suns seem satisfied to put a team on the court that is entertaining and able to contend for a playoff spot but not much more.
Still, barring injuries, we have a hard time believing that the Suns will sink to 14th in the Western Conference, where ESPN.com basketball expert John Hollinger rates the club.
An SI.com NBA writer named the Suns as his “flop team” for 2012 and an NBA guy on one sports blog site predicted the Suns would be the team with the worst record in the league this season.
Wow.
If Steve Nash and Grant Hill are around for all 66 games, a total collapse such as that seems unlikely.
Not that we’d expect the Suns to get defensive about the predictions.
Getting defensive has never really been their thing.
By the numbers
29 — Where the Suns ranked in the NBA during the 2010-11 season in scoring defense, when they surrendered an average of 105.9 points per game.
30 — Where the Suns ranked in the NBA after the two-game 2012 preseason, when they yielded 118.5 points a game to the Nuggets.
27.5 — The over-under on the number of victories web-based sports bookmaker Bovada.lv placed on the Suns for this season.
9 — The place in the Western Conference that Bovada predicts the Suns will finish in.
2 — Number of times the Suns have missed the playoffs during the last three seasons.
43 — Number of seasons the Suns have played, not counting this one.
29 — Number of playoff appearances in those 43 previous seasons.
0 — Number of championships Suns have won in those 43 previous seasons.
The X factor
Is Robin Lopez.
Has he really improved as much as advertised? Even as a backup to Marcin Gortat, Lopez can make a big difference in the team’s lackluster defense if he’s right physically and between the ears.
The Ex factor
Is Vince Carter. We liked Jared Dudley coming off the bench, but maybe not as much as we liked Carter on the bench.
Dude was painful to watch.
Anyway, whether it is Dudley or free-agent acquisition Shannon Brown in the starting five, the Suns have upgraded.
Suns make the playoffs if:
- Channing Frye stops looking over his shoulder at rookie Markieff Morris and begins looking at the rim.
- Gortat’s thumb heals quickly.
- Nash, who is approaching 38, and Hill who has reached 39, hold up over a frenetic, lockout-shortened schedule.
- The team finally has found its backup point guard in Ronnie Price.
- Josh Childress plays as big as his hair.
Suns miss the playoffs if:
- Nash is traded.
- It wasn’t just a bad dream and Amar’e Stoudemire really is in New York.
- Elston Turner is not a miracle worker.
- Jared Dudley doesn’t average 30 minutes a game.
- Authorities are unable to locate Frye’s missing 3-point shot.
Reach the Heat Index at 602-444-8271 or bob.young@arizonarepublic.com.
That’s all for today guys, i’ll be back to blog you tomorrow.